An iterated parametric approach to nonstationary signal extraction

  • Authors:
  • Tucker McElroy;Andrew Sutcliffe

  • Affiliations:
  • Statistical Research Division, US Census Bureau, 4700 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC 20233-9100, USA;Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia

  • Venue:
  • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

Consider the three-component time series model that decomposes observed data (Y) into the sum of seasonal (S), trend (T), and irregular (I) portions. Assuming that S and T are nonstationary and that I is stationary, it is demonstrated that widely used Wiener-Kolmogorov signal extraction estimates of S and T can be obtained through an iteration scheme applied to optimal estimates derived from reduced two-component models for S plus I and T plus I. This ''bootstrapping'' signal extraction methodology is reminiscent of the iterated nonparametric approach of the US Census Bureau's X-11 program. The analysis of the iteration scheme provides insight into the algebraic relationship between full model and reduced model signal extraction estimates.