Artificial neural networks in wave predictions at the west coast of Portugal

Authors:
O. Makarynskyy;A. A. Pires-Silva;D. Makarynska;C. Ventura-Soares
Affiliations:
Curtin University of Technology, Western Australian Centre for Geodesy, GPO Box U1987, Perth 6845, Australia;Instituto Superior Técnico, Av.Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal;Curtin University of Technology, Western Australian Centre for Geodesy, GPO Box U1987, Perth 6845, Australia;Instituto Hidrográfico, Rua das Trinas, 49, 1249-093 Lisbon, Portugal
Venue:
Computers & Geosciences
Year:
2005

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Abstract

In coastal and open ocean human activities, there is an increasing demand for accurate estimates of future sea state. In these activities, predictions of wave heights and periods are of particular importance. In this study, two different neural network strategies were employed to forecast significant wave heights and zero-up-crossing wave periods 3, 6, 12 and 24h in advance. In the first approach, eight simple separate neural nets were implemented to simulate every wave parameter over each prediction interval. In the second approach, only two networks provided simultaneous forecasts of these wave parameters for the four prediction intervals. Two independent sets of measurements from a directional wave buoy moored off the Portuguese west coast were used to train and to validate the artificial neural nets. Saliency analysis of the results permitted an optimization of the networks' architectures. The optimal learning algorithm for each case was also determined. The short-term forecasts of the wave parameters verified by actual observations demonstrate the suitability of the artificial neural technique.