On simulation and optimization of one natural gas industry system under the rough environment

Authors:
Jiuping Xu;Rentao Dong;Desheng Dash Wu
Affiliations:
Uncertainty Decision-Making Laboratory, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China;School of Public and Administration, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China;Reykjavik University, Kringlunni 1, IS-103 Reykjavík, Iceland and RiskLab, University of Toronto, 1 Spadina Crescent, Toronto, Canada ON M5S 3G3
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2010

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Abstract

Industry planning is a complex decision making problem involving various criteria under dynamic situations. This paper studies the natural gas industry planning where natural gas is used to produce chemical products in the upper course of the Yangtze River in China. We identify the main uncertainty factors that affecting planning, and then model and analyze them using rough set, dynamic system and multiple objective programming theories. Thus, we develop system dynamic-rough multiple objective programming (SD-RMOP) models to plan and develop natural gas industry operations in this region. We then carry out a simulation experiment using optimized parameters from SD-RMOP. We compare performance from different models and show how decision-making is improved by the insight the model provides.