Air passenger demand forecasting and passenger terminal capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework

Authors:
Erma Suryani;Shuo-Yan Chou;Chih-Hsien Chen
Affiliations:
Department of Industrial Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43 Keelung Road Section 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan;Department of Industrial Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43 Keelung Road Section 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan;Department of Management, Fo Guang University, 160 Linwei Road, Jiaosi Shiang, Yilan County 26247, Taiwan
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2010

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Abstract

This paper deals with how to develop a model to forecast air passenger demand and to evaluate some policy scenarios related with runway and passenger terminal capacity expansion to meet the future demand. System dynamics frameworks can be used to model, to analyze and to generate scenario to increase the system performance because of its capability of representing physical and information flows, based on information feedback control that are continuously converted into decisions and actions. We found that airfare impact, level of service impact, GDP, population, number of flights per day and dwell time play an important roles in determining the air passenger volume, runway utilization and total additional area needed for passenger terminal capacity expansion.