Stochastic model for outcome prediction in acute illness

  • Authors:

  • William C. Shoemaker;David S. Bayard;Charles C. J. Wo;Andreas Botnen;Linda S. Chan;Li-Chien Chien;Kevin Lu;Demetrios Demetriades;Howard Belzberg;Roger W. Jelliffe

  • Affiliations:

  • Department of Surgery, LAC+USC Medial center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA;The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasendena, CA, USA;Department of Surgery, LAC+USC Medial center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA;Laboratory of Applied Pharmcokinetics, LAC+USC Medical center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA;Laboratory of Applied Pharmcokinetics, LAC+USC Medical center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA;Department of Surgery, LAC+USC Medial center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA;Department of Surgery, LAC+USC Medial center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA;Laboratory of Applied Pharmcokinetics, LAC+USC Medical center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA;Department of Surgery, LAC+USC Medial center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA;Laboratory of Applied Pharmcokinetics, LAC+USC Medical center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA, USA

  • Venue:
  • Computers in Biology and Medicine
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

The aims were to apply a stochastic model to predict outcome early in acute emergencies and to evaluate the effectiveness of various therapies in a consecutively monitored series of severely injured patients with noninvasive hemodynamic monitoring. The survival probabilities were calculated beginning shortly after admission to the emergency department (ED) and at subsequent intervals during their hospitalization. Cardiac function was evaluated by cardiac output (CI), heart rate (HR), and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), pulmonary function by pulse oximetry (SapO"2), and tissue perfusion function by transcutaneous oxygen indexed to FiO"2,(PtcO"2/FiO"2), and carbon dioxide (PtcCO"2) tension. The survival probability (SP) of survivors averaged 81.5+/-1.1% (SEM) and for nonsurvivors 57.7+/-2.3% (p