Two-layered evolutionary forecasting for IPO underpricing

  • Authors:
  • C. Luque;D. Quintana;J. M. Valls;P. Isasi

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganés, Spain;Department of Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid;Department of Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid;Department of Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

  • Venue:
  • CEC'09 Proceedings of the Eleventh conference on Congress on Evolutionary Computation
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

In this paper we present a two-layered evolutionary system based on Voronoi regions to predict the initial return of a sample of initial pubic offerings. The proposed solution partitions the input space by evolving a set of prototypes using evolution strategies and subsequently fits specialized models to each of them. The exercise is repeated to produce a set of predictive models. The forecast for the return of new patterns is obtained averaging the solutions provided by different models into a single figure. The system is benchmarked against alternatives with the result of a strong relative performance.