An automated FX trading system using adaptive reinforcement learning

  • Authors:
  • M. A. H. Dempster;V. Leemans

  • Affiliations:
  • Centre for Financial Research, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge & Cambridge Systems Associates Limited, Cambridge, UK;Centre for Financial Research, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge & Cambridge Systems Associates Limited, Cambridge, UK

  • Venue:
  • Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

This paper introduces adaptive reinforcement learning (ARL) as the basis for a fully automated trading system application. The system is designed to trade foreign exchange (FX) markets and relies on a layered structure consisting of a machine learning algorithm, a risk management overlay and a dynamic utility optimization layer. An existing machine-learning method called recurrent reinforcement learning (RRL) was chosen as the underlying algorithm for ARL. One of the strengths of our approach is that the dynamic optimization layer makes a fixed choice of model tuning parameters unnecessary. It also allows for a risk-return trade-off to be made by the user within the system. The trading system is able to make consistent gains out-of-sample while avoiding large draw-downs.