Mathematical Models in Biology
Mathematical Models in Biology
Validated solutions of initial value problems for parametric ODEs
Applied Numerical Mathematics
On Taylor Model Based Integration of ODEs
SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis
Hopf bifurcation in epidemic models with a latent period and nonpermanent immunity
Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal
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Epidemiological models can be used to study the impact of an infection within a population. These models often involve parameters that are not known with certainty. Using a method for verified solution of nonlinear dynamic models, we can bound the disease trajectories that are possible for given bounds on the uncertain parameters. The method is based on the use of an interval Taylor series to represent dependence on time and the use of Taylor models to represent dependence on uncertain parameters and/or initial conditions. The use of this method in epidemiology is demonstrated using the SIRS model, and other variations of Kermack-McKendrick models, including the case of time-dependent transmission.