A Bayesian network to predict the probability of organic farms' exit from the sector: A case study from Marche, Italy

  • Authors:
  • D. Gambelli;V. Bruschi

  • Affiliations:
  • Universití Politecnica delle Marche, DIIGA, via Brecce Bianche, Ancona, Italy;Universití Politecnica delle Marche, DIIGA, via Brecce Bianche, Ancona, Italy

  • Venue:
  • Computers and Electronics in Agriculture
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

The maintenance of organic farming production schemes is a theme receiving a growing interest now that there are signs of a slowing in organic farming uptake in Italy. The present study develops a model based on a Bayesian network (BN) that is aimed at investigating the factors that affect the exit of a farm from the organic sector and to simulate the probability of maintaining an organic scheme for different farm types. The model is based on a database of organic farms, which has been integrated with qualitative information. Farm-type simulation and sensitivity analysis of most of the relevant variables have been carried out. Main results show that arable farm types are those with a higher probability to stay in the organic sector, while farmers' age, Province the farm is situated in and farm size are the factors mostly influencing probability scores.