Neural Computation
A practical Bayesian framework for backpropagation networks
Neural Computation
Issues in Bayesian analysis of neural network models
Neural Computation
No free lunch for early stopping
Neural Computation
Bayesian approach for neural networks—review and case studies
Neural Networks
Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation
Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation
Bayesian neural networks for nonlinear time series forecasting
Statistics and Computing
ICANN/ICONIP'03 Proceedings of the 2003 joint international conference on Artificial neural networks and neural information processing
A review of Bayesian neural networks with an application to near infrared spectroscopy
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks
Bayesian nonlinear model selection and neural networks: a conjugate prior approach
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks
Bayesian multioutput feedforward neural networks comparison: a conjugate prior approach
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks
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Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the main challenges are defining the appropriate level of model complexity, and choosing the input variables. This paper evaluates techniques for automatic neural network modelling within a Bayesian framework, as applied to six samples containing daily load and weather data for four different countries. We analyse input selection as carried out by the Bayesian 'automatic relevance determination', and the usefulness of the Bayesian 'evidence' for the selection of the best structure (in terms of number of neurones), as compared to methods based on cross-validation.