Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Capital budgeting techniques using discounted fuzzy versus probabilistic cash flows
Information Sciences—Informatics and Computer Science: An International Journal - Special issue: Intelligent information systems and applications
Real Options Analysis and Strategic Decision Making
Organization Science
On weighted possibilistic mean and variance of fuzzy numbers
Fuzzy Sets and Systems - Theme: Basic concepts
Pricing European options based on the fuzzy pattern of Black-Scholes formula
Computers and Operations Research
Information Sciences—Informatics and Computer Science: An International Journal
A fuzzy approach to R&D project portfolio selection
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Option valuation model with adaptive fuzzy numbers
Computers & Mathematics with Applications
Active ERP implementation management: A Real Options perspective
Journal of Systems and Software
Is there a need for fuzzy logic?
Information Sciences: an International Journal
American option pricing with imprecise risk-neutral probabilities
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
A new application of fuzzy set theory to the Black-Scholes option pricing model
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Median value and median interval of a fuzzy number
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Toward a generalized theory of uncertainty (GTU)--an outline
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Enhancing enterprise agility by deploying agile drivers, capabilities and providers
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Computers and Industrial Engineering
Fuzzy net present values for capital investments in an uncertain environment
Computers and Operations Research
A fuzzy linguistic ontology payoff method for aerospace real options valuation
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Hi-index | 0.07 |
The typical approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls. One is that DCF parameters such as cash flows cannot be estimated precisely in an uncertain decision making environment. The other one is that the values of managerial flexibilities in investment projects cannot be exactly revealed through DCF analysis. Both of them would have significant influence on strategic investment projects valuation. This paper proposes a fuzzy binomial approach that can be used in project valuation under uncertainty. The proposed approach also reveals the value of flexibilities embedded in the project. Furthermore, this paper provides a method to compute the mean value of a project's fuzzy NPV. The project's fuzzy NPV is characterized with right-skewed possibilistic distribution because these flexibilities retain the upside potential of profit but limit the downside risk of loss. Finally, this paper discusses the value of multiple options in a project.