Fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains

Authors:
Francisco Campuzano;Josefa Mula;David Peidro
Affiliations:
Technical University of Cartagena (UPCT), Spain;CIGIP (Research Centre on Production Management and Engineering), Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Spain;CIGIP (Research Centre on Production Management and Engineering), Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Spain
Venue:
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Year:
2010

Citing 6
Cited 0

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Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate the behavior of fuzzy estimations of demand instead of demand forecasts based on exponential smoothing in a two-stage, single-item, multi-period supply chain. A system dynamics model with fuzzy estimations of demand has been constructed for supply chain simulation. Fuzzy numbers are used to model fuzzy demand estimations. With a numerical example, we show that the bullwhip effect and the amplification of the inventory variance (NSamp) can be effectively reduced.