A parameter estimation method for machine tool reliability analysis using expert judgement

Authors:
Bhupesh Kumar Lad;Makarand S. Kulkarni
Affiliations:
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, (IIT Delhi), Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India.;Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, (IIT Delhi), Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India
Venue:
International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies
Year:
2010

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Abstract

This paper aims at providing a parameter estimation method for the machine tool reliability analysis to overcome the problem of unavailability of a well-defined failure data collection mechanism. It uses the knowledge and experience of maintenance personnel to obtain the parameters of lifetime distribution of the repairable as well as non-repairable components/subassemblies. It is further developed for the cases where the knowledge available with the expert is with reference to the preventive repair/replacement policy used in the field. In case of imperfect repairs, the methodology also helps in estimating the value of restoration factor. The goodness of the proposed methodology at a given accuracy level in expert judgements are tested against the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. It is concluded that the expert judgement method provides a satisfactory alternative to statistical methods when no or very few historical time to failure data points are available.