Using fuzzy cognitive maps as a decision support system for political decisions

Authors:
Athanasios K. Tsadiras;Ilias Kouskouvelis;Konstantinos G. Margaritis
Affiliations:
Department of Applied Informatics, Economic & Political Studies, University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece;Department of International & European, Economic & Political Studies, University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece;Department of Applied Informatics, Economic & Political Studies, University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece
Venue:
PCI'01 Proceedings of the 8th Panhellenic conference on Informatics
Year:
2001

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Abstract

In this paper we use Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs), a well-established Artificial Intelligence technique that incorporates ideas from Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic, to create a dynamic model of the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) Crisis in March 2001. FCMs create models as collections of concepts and the various causal relations that exist between these concepts. The decision capabilities of the FCM structure are examined and presented using a model that is developed based on the beliefs of a domain expert. The model is first examined statically using graph theory techniques to identify the vicious or the virtuous cycles of the decision process. The model is also tested dynamically thought simulations, in order to support political analysts and decision makers to their political decisions concerning the crisis. Scenarios are introduced and predictions are made by viewing dynamically the consequences of the corresponding actions.