SVM-based time series prediction with nonlinear dynamics methods

Authors:
Francesco Camastra;Maurizio Filippone
Affiliations:
Dipartimento di Scienze Applicate, Universitá di Napoli Parthenope, Napoli, Italy;DISI, University of Genova and CNISM, Genova, Italy
Venue:
KES'07/WIRN'07 Proceedings of the 11th international conference, KES 2007 and XVII Italian workshop on neural networks conference on Knowledge-based intelligent information and engineering systems: Part III
Year:
2007

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Abstract

A key problem in time series prediction using autoregressive models is to fix the model order, namely the number of past samples required to model the time series adequately. The estimation of the model order using cross-validation is a long process. In this paper we explore faster alternative to cross-validation, based on nonlinear dynamics methods, namely Grassberger-Procaccia, Kégl and False Nearest Neighbors algorithms. Once the model order is obtained, it is used to carry out the prediction, performed by a SVM. Experiments on three real data time series show that nonlinear dynamics methods have performances very close to the cross-validation ones.