Forecasting industrial production in Brazil: Evidence from a wavelet approach

Authors:
Benjamin Miranda Tabak;Mateus Araujo Feitosa
Affiliations:
Banco Central do Brasil, Research Department, Brazil and Graduate Program in Economics, Universidade Catolica de Brasilia, Brazil;Department of Business Administration, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, C/Madrid 126, 28903 Getafe, Spain
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2010

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Abstract

The present paper studies the informational content of the Brazilian term structure of interest rate. We apply multiresolution decomposition to the spread and to the industrial production, and investigate if the term spread presents information that can help predict the path followed by industrial production. We also investigate if all the predictive ability of the spread is due to the monetary policy. The results suggest that the yield spread contains relevant information, and this predictive power varies across time patterns. Inasmuch, the results indicate that the predictive power of the spread is not totally explained by monetary policy.