Accurate prediction of financial distress of companies with machine learning algorithms

  • Authors:
  • Armando S. Vieira;João Duarte;Bernardete Ribeiro;João C. Neves

  • Affiliations:
  • ISEP, Porto, Portugal;ISEP, Porto, Portugal;Depart. of Informatics Engineering, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal;ISEG, School of Economics, Lisboa, Portugal

  • Venue:
  • ICANNGA'09 Proceedings of the 9th international conference on Adaptive and natural computing algorithms
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

Prediction of financial distress of companies is analyzed with several machine learning approaches. We used Diane, a large database containing financial records from small and medium size French companies, from the year of 2002 up to 2007. It is shown that inclusion of historical data, up to 3 years priori to the analysis, increases the prediction accuracy and that Support Vector Machines are the most accurate predictor.