Perspectives on the theory and practice of belief functions
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Artificial Intelligence
Factors affecting the expectation of casualties in the virtual range toxicity model
WSC '04 Proceedings of the 36th conference on Winter simulation
Simulation modeling of space missions using the high level architecture
Modelling and Simulation in Engineering
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In light of the significant changes being observed in the US space industry, in terms of the increase share of commercial launches, the development of inland spaceports, and the emergence of new vehicle designs and propulsion systems, there is need to reassess launch safety. In this paper, several issues related to space launch safety are reviewed, one in particular being the use, as the main the safety metric, of the mean collective risk to the general public, also known as the expectation of casualties. A new, decision level, information-fusion-based metric is proposed, and through a detailed case study, its merit in terms of the quality and quantity of information it generates is illustrated. The need for a new metric is here advocated as a critical first step toward the necessary transition from a risk avoidance philosophy to space launch safety to a risk management philosophy.