Applied Survival Analysis: Regression Modeling of Time to Event Data
Applied Survival Analysis: Regression Modeling of Time to Event Data
Survival Analysis for the Duration of Software Projects
METRICS '05 Proceedings of the 11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium
Forecasting the number of changes in Eclipse using time series analysis
ICSEW '07 Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Software Engineering Workshops
Modeling the Effect of Size on Defect Proneness for Open-Source Software
PROMISE '07 Proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Predictor Models in Software Engineering
A statistical framework for analyzing the duration of software projects
Empirical Software Engineering
Brooks' versus Linus' law: an empirical test of open source projects
dg.o '08 Proceedings of the 2008 international conference on Digital government research
Determinants of open source software project success: A longitudinal study
Decision Support Systems
Identifying exogenous drivers and evolutionary stages in FLOSS projects
Journal of Systems and Software
Survival analysis in open development projects
FLOSS '09 Proceedings of the 2009 ICSE Workshop on Emerging Trends in Free/Libre/Open Source Software Research and Development
Reliability analysis and optimal version-updating for open source software
Information and Software Technology
Journal of Systems and Software
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Context: Open source (FLOSS) project survivability is an important piece of information for many open source stakeholders. Coordinators of open source projects would like to know the chances for the survival of the projects they coordinate. Companies are also interested in knowing how viable a project is in order to either participate or invest in it, and volunteers want to contribute to vivid projects. Objective: The purpose of this article is the application of survival analysis techniques for estimating the future development of a FLOSS project. Method: In order to apply such approach, duration data regarding FLOSS projects from the FLOSSMETRICS (This work was partially supported by the European Community's Sixth Framework Program under the Contract FP6-033982) database were collected. Such database contains metadata for thousands of FLOSS projects, derived from various forges. Subsequently, survival analysis methods were employed to predict the survivability of the projects, i.e. their probability of continuation in the future, by examining their duration, combined with other project characteristics such as their application domain and number of committers. Results: It was shown how probability of termination or continuation may be calculated and how a prediction model may be built to upraise project future. In addition, the benefit of adding more committers to FLOSS projects was quantified. Conclusion: Analysis results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed framework for assessing the survival probability of a FLOSS project.