The Temporal and Topological Characteristics of BGP Path Changes
ICNP '03 Proceedings of the 11th IEEE International Conference on Network Protocols
Locating internet routing instabilities
Proceedings of the 2004 conference on Applications, technologies, architectures, and protocols for computer communications
Providing end-to-end service level agreements across multiple ISP networks
Computer Networks: The International Journal of Computer and Telecommunications Networking - Special issue: Internet economics: Pricing and policies
Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques, Second Edition (Morgan Kaufmann Series in Data Management Systems)
BGP routing dynamics revisited
ACM SIGCOMM Computer Communication Review
iPlane: an information plane for distributed services
OSDI '06 Proceedings of the 7th symposium on Operating systems design and implementation
Studying black holes in the internet with Hubble
NSDI'08 Proceedings of the 5th USENIX Symposium on Networked Systems Design and Implementation
BGP routing policies in ISP networks
IEEE Network: The Magazine of Global Internetworking
Prediction models for long-term Internet prefix availability
Computer Networks: The International Journal of Computer and Telecommunications Networking
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The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) maintains inter-domain routing information by announcing and withdrawing IP prefixes, possibly resulting in temporary prefix unreachability. Prefix availability observed from different vantage points in the Internet can be lower than standards promised by Service Level Agreements (SLAs). In this paper, we develop a framework for predicting long-term prefix availability, given short-duration prefix information from publicly available BGP routing databases. We compare three prediction models, and find that bagged decision trees perform the best when predicting for long future durations, whereas a simple model works well for short prediction durations. We show that mean time to failure and to recovery outperform past availability in terms of their importance for predicting availability for long durations. We also find that predictability is higher in the year 2009, compared to four years earlier. Our models allow ISPs to adjust BGP routing policies if predicted availability is low, and the models are useful for cloud computing systems, P2P, and VoIP applications.