Analyzing uncertainty in TG protection graphs with TG/MC

  • Authors:
  • James R. Conrad;Jim Alves-Foss;Sauchi Stephen Lee

  • Affiliations:
  • (Correspd. Tel.: +1 208 573 6450) Department of Computer Science, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA. E-mails: {conr2286, jimaf}@uidaho.edu;Department of Computer Science, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA. E-mails: {conr2286, jimaf}@uidaho.edu;Department of Statistics, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA

  • Venue:
  • Journal of Computer Security
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

We introduce TG/MC, a Monte Carlo approach for evaluating the impact of uncertainty about vulnerabilities upon forecasts of security for a real-world system modeled by a protection graph. A TG/MC model defines a vulnerability as a potential change to an otherwise safe initial protection graph that, if exploited, leads to an unauthorized state, a violation of the system's security policy through the application of TG rules. TG/MC captures uncertainties about vulnerabilities as probability distributions and forecasts the probability of a specific security violation. TG/MC extends beyond the rigid yes/no analysis of safety in a TG protection graph to consider uncertainty in questions of security for real-world systems.