Nonlinear methods for inverse statistical problems

  • Authors:
  • Pierre Barbillon;Gilles Celeux;Agnès Grimaud;Yannick Lefebvre;ítienne De Rocquigny

  • Affiliations:
  • Université Paris-sud 11, INRIA Saclay, France;Université Paris-sud 11, INRIA Saclay, France;Institut Mathématiques de Luminy, France;Schlumberger, France;ícole Centrale Paris, France

  • Venue:
  • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

In the uncertainty treatment framework considered, the intrinsic variability of the inputs of a physical simulation model is modelled by a multivariate probability distribution. The objective is to identify this probability distribution-the dispersion of which is independent of the sample size since intrinsic variability is at stake-based on observation of some model outputs. Moreover, in order to limit the number of (usually burdensome) physical model runs inside the inversion algorithm to a reasonable level, a nonlinear approximation methodology making use of Kriging and a stochastic EM algorithm is presented. It is compared with iterated linear approximation on the basis of numerical experiments on simulated data sets coming from a simplified but realistic modelling of a dyke overflow. Situations where this nonlinear approach is to be preferred to linearisation are highlighted.