Assessing experts' contribution in a qualitative DSS: an example from organic food sector scenarios

  • Authors:

  • Danilo Gambelli;Daniela Vairo;Raffaele Zanoli

  • Affiliations:

  • D.I.I.G.A. --Polytechnic University of Marche;D.I.I.G.A. --Polytechnic University of Marche;D.I.I.G.A. --Polytechnic University of Marche

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 2010 conference on Bridging the Socio-technical Gap in Decision Support Systems: Challenges for the Next Decade
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

Scenario analysis is a qualitative tool for policy analysis and business planning support that enables stakeholders and policymakers to consider decisions with enhanced awareness, due its cognitive implications for planned behavior. In this study, the scenario analysis is used to discuss the future development of the market of organic food products in Europe. A deductive-qualitative approach to scenario has been used, based on experts' assessments. Results of the scenario analysis may provide a basis for decision making under different scenarios outlined, and are integrated by an innovative attempt to evaluate scenario plausibility through cognitive process evaluation.