Prediction of the Period of Psychotic Episode in Individual Schizophrenics by Simulation-Data Construction Approach

  • Authors:

  • Chun-Jung Huang;Hsiao-Fan Wang;Hsien-Jane Chiu;Tsuo-Hung Lan;Tsung-Ming Hu;El-Wui Loh

  • Affiliations:

  • Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, College of Engineering, National Tsing-Hua University, HsinChu, Taiwan;Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, College of Engineering, National Tsing-Hua University, HsinChu, Taiwan;Jianan Mental Hospital, Department of Health, Tainan County, Taiwan and Faculty of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan;Division of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Research, Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan 350 and Faculty of Medicine, National Yang-Ming ...;Yu-Li Veterans Hospital, Yu-Li Town, Taiwan;Division of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Research, Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan 350 and Department of Medical Research, Mackay ...

  • Venue:
  • Journal of Medical Systems
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

Although schizophrenia can be treated, most patients still experience inevitable psychotic episodes from time to time. Precautious actions can be taken if the next onset can be predicted. However, sufficient information is always lacking in the clinical scenario. A possible solution is to use the virtual data generated from limited of original data. Data construction method (DCM) has been shown to generate the virtual felt earthquake data effectively and used in the prediction of further events. Here we investigated the performance of DCM in deriving the membership functions and discrete-event simulations (DES) in predicting the period embracing the initiation and termination time-points of the next psychotic episode of 35 individual schizophrenic patients. The results showed that 21 subjects had a success of simulations (RSS) 驴70%. Further analysis demonstrated that the co-morbidity of coronary heart diseases (CHD), risks of CHD, and the frequency of previous psychotic episodes increased the RSS. (150 words)