PutMode: prediction of uncertain trajectories in moving objects databases

  • Authors:
  • Shaojie Qiao;Changjie Tang;Huidong Jin;Teng Long;Shucheng Dai;Yungchang Ku;Michael Chau

  • Affiliations:
  • School of Information Science and Technology, Southwest JiaoTong University, Chengdu, China 610031 and School of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China 610065;School of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China 610065;Mathematical and Information Sciences, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Canberra, Australia 2601;School of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China 610065;School of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China 610065;Department of Information Management, Yuan Ze University, Taipei, Taiwan 320;School of Business, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong

  • Venue:
  • Applied Intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

Objective: Prediction of moving objects with uncertain motion patterns is emerging rapidly as a new exciting paradigm and is important for law enforcement applications such as criminal tracking analysis. However, existing algorithms for prediction in spatio-temporal databases focus on discovering frequent trajectory patterns from historical data. Moreover, these methods overlook the effect of some important factors, such as speed and moving direction. This lacks generality as moving objects may follow dynamic motion patterns in real life. Methods: We propose a framework for predicating uncertain trajectories in moving objects databases. Based on Continuous Time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs), we develop a trajectory prediction algorithm, called PutMode (Prediction of uncertain trajectories in Moving objects databases). It comprises three phases: (i) construction of TCTBNs (Trajectory CTBNs) which obey the Markov property and consist of states combined by three important variables including street identifier, speed, and direction; (ii) trajectory clustering for clearing up outlying trajectories; (iii) predicting the motion behaviors of moving objects in order to obtain the possible trajectories based on TCTBNs. Results: Experimental results show that PutMode can predict the possible motion curves of objects in an accurate and efficient manner in distinct trajectory data sets with an average accuracy higher than 80%. Furthermore, we illustrate the crucial role of trajectory clustering, which provides benefits on prediction time as well as prediction accuracy.