Short-term Maharashtra state electrical power load prediction with special emphasis on seasonal changes using a novel focused time lagged recurrent neural network based on time delay neural network model

• Authors: S. M. Kelo;S. V. Dudul
• Venue: Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
• Year: 2011

In this paper, the parameter-wise optimization training process is implemented to achieve an optimal configuration of focused time lagged recurrent neural network (FTLRNN) models by embedding the gamma, laguarre, and multi-channel tapped delay line memory structure. The aim is to examine the prediction ability of the proposed models in order to predict one-day-ahead electric power load simultaneously as usual to oppose 1-24h forecast in sequel with a special emphasis on seasonal changes over a year. An improved delta-bar-delta algorithm is used to accelerate the training of neural networks and to improve the stability of the convergence. Experimental results indicate that the FTLRNN with time delay neural network (TDNN) clearly outperformed the gamma and laguarre based short-term memory structure in various performance metrics such as mean square error (MSE), normalized MSE, correlation coefficient (r) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) during evaluation process. Empirical results show that the proposed dynamic NN model consistently performs well on daily, weekly, and monthly average basis in terms of prediction accuracy. It is noticed from the literature review that an optimally configured FTLRNN with multi-channel tapped delay line memory structure is not currently available to solve short-term electrical power load prediction. The proposed method gives acceptable errors in all seasons, months and on daily basis. The average prediction error on three weeks is obtained as low as 1.67%.