Fuzzy reliability estimation using Bayesian approach
Computers and Industrial Engineering
Bayesian reliability analysis for fuzzy lifetime data
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Bayesian system reliability assessment under the vague environment
Applied Soft Computing
Software Testing, Verification & Reliability
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To have effective production planning and control, it is necessary to calculate the reliability and availability of a production system as a whole. Considering only machine reliability in the calculations would most likely result unmet due dates. In this study, a new modelling approach for determining the reliability and availability of a production system is proposed by considering all the components of the system and their hierarchy in the system structure. Components of a production system are defined as production processes; components of the processes are defined as sub-processes. In this hierarchical structure we could model all kinds of failures such as material and supply, management and personnel, and machine and equipment. In the analysis, a fuzzy Bayesian method is used to quantify the uncertainties in the production environment. The suggested modelling approach is illustrated on an example. In the example, also a separate reliability and availability analysis is conducted which only considered machine failures, and the results of both analyses are compared.