Stochastic modelling of the effects of interdependencies between critical infrastructure

Authors:
Robin Bloomfield;Lubos Buzna;Peter Popov;Kizito Salako;David Wright
Affiliations:
Centre for Software Reliability, City University London and Adelard LLP, London, UK;University of Zilina, Zilina, Slovakia;Centre for Software Reliability, City University London, London, UK;Centre for Software Reliability, City University London, London, UK;Centre for Software Reliability, City University London, London, UK
Venue:
CRITIS'09 Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Critical information infrastructures security
Year:
2009

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Abstract

An approach to Quantitative Interdependency Analysis, in the context of Large Complex Critical Infrastructures, is presented in this paper. A Discrete state-space, Continuous-time, Stochastic Process models the operation of critical infrastructure, taking interdependencies into account. Of primary interest are the implications of both model detail (that is, level of model abstraction) and model parameterisation for the study of dependencies. Both of these factors are observed to affect the distribution of cascade-sizes within and across infrastructure.