Petri net techniques for process planning cost estimation
Advances in Engineering Software
Weighing and Integrating Evidence for Stochastic Simulation in Bayesian Networks
UAI '89 Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Mixed deterministic and probabilistic networks
Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence
Lifted first-order belief propagation
AAAI'08 Proceedings of the 23rd national conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 2
Pervasive diagnosis: the integration of diagnostic goals into production plans
AAAI'08 Proceedings of the 23rd national conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 3
Lifted first-order probabilistic inference
IJCAI'05 Proceedings of the 19th international joint conference on Artificial intelligence
Constraint-based integration of plan tracking and prognosis for autonomous production
KI'09 Proceedings of the 32nd annual German conference on Advances in artificial intelligence
Compiling AI engineering models for probabilistic inference
KI'11 Proceedings of the 34th Annual German conference on Advances in artificial intelligence
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Next-generation autonomous manufacturing plants create individualized products by automatically deriving manufacturing schedules from design specifications. However, because planning and scheduling are computationally hard, they must typically be done offline using a simplified system model, meaning that online observations and potential component faults cannot be considered. This leads to the problem of plan assessment: Given behavior models and current observations of the plant's (possibly faulty) behavior, what is the probability of a partially executed manufacturing plan succeeding? In this work, we propose 1) a statistical relational behavior model for a class of manufacturing scenarios and 2) a method to derive statistical bounds on plan success probabilities for each product from confidence intervals based on sampled system behaviors. Experimental results are presented for three hypothetical yet realistic manufacturing scenarios.