How does repetition of signals increase precision of numerical judgment?

  • Authors:

  • Eike B. Kroll;Jörg Rieger;Bodo Vogt

  • Affiliations:

  • Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Economic Theory and Statistics, Karlsruhe, Germany;Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Chair of Empirical Economics, Magdeburg, Germany;Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Chair of Empirical Economics, Magdeburg, Germany

  • Venue:
  • BI'10 Proceedings of the 2010 international conference on Brain informatics
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

This paper investigates the processing of repeated complex information. The focus of this study is how precision of stated numerical estimates is influenced by repetition of the signal and information about the estimates of others. The key question is whether individuals use the law of large numbers in their estimates. In an experiment, participants are asked to estimate the number of points in a scatter plot, which is visible for a short time. The setting of the experiment allows for stating intervals and/or point estimates. Our analysis shows that the estimated interval gets smaller with each repetition of the signal, but the pattern does not follow the prediction of statistical models. The difference between their own estimates and information about the estimates of others does not lead to higher stated precision of the estimate, but does improve its average quality, i.e. the difference between answer and signal gets smaller.