A classification algorithm for process sequences based on Markov chains and Bayesian networks

  • Authors:
  • Katharina Tschumitschew;Detlef Nauck;Frank Klawonn

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Computer Science Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences, Wolfenbuettel, Germany;Research and Venturing Intelligent Systems Research, Ipswich, UK;Department of Computer Science Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences, Wolfenbuettel, Germany

  • Venue:
  • KES'10 Proceedings of the 14th international conference on Knowledge-based and intelligent information and engineering systems: Part I
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

Companies in the customer-centric service sector deal with thousands of business processes on a daily basis. As different tasks progress along the process sequence, the process owners are interested in three key questions: which task could be the next in the remaining process path, how and when will the process finish? In this paper, we focus mainly on the first two question, the prediction of the length of the process path is part of further research. We propose a classification method based on Markov chains and Bayesian networks for predicting such properties like the remaining process flow, especially the next task in the process path, and the class of the process. This approach is applied and tested on real-world data, showing some interesting results and hints for further research.