An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

  • Authors:

  • G. R. Larocque;J. S. Bhatti;J. C. Ascough, II;J. Liu;N. Luckai;D. Mailly;L. Archambault;A. M. Gordon

  • Affiliations:

  • Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Ste-Foy, Quebec, QC, G1V 4C7 Canada;Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, 5320-122 Street, Edmonton, AB, T6H 3S5 Canada;USDA-ARS-NPA, Agricultural Systems Research Unit, 2150 Centre Ave., Bldg. D, Suite 200, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA;Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies (SGT, Inc.), Contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, 47914 252nd St., Sioux Falls, SD 57198, USA;Faculty of Forestry and the Forest Environment, Lakehead University, 955 Oliver Road, Thunder Bay, ON, P7B 5E1 Canada;Direction de la recherche forestière, ministère des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune du Québec, 2700 rue Einstein, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8 Canada;Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Ste-Foy, Quebec, QC, G1V 4C7 Canada;School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, N1G 2W1, Canada

  • Venue:
  • Environmental Modelling & Software
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.