A model for popularity dynamics to predict hot articles in discussion blog
Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
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Nowadays, users of online platforms can manage their own visibility and therefore popularity by mixing self-publishing activities and social networking. If one can develop strategies for building a reputation, his success is not determined only by his actions but also by the context in which he is involved. His popularity may evolve during time and this can be caused by multiple reasons. In this study we try to understand the reasons behind the evolution of MySpace artists' popularity. We use an additive mixture model in order to explain the variation of popularity between two snapshots of the same MySpace population. First we categorize the population into 5 clusters depending on their audience and authority in the first snapshot. Then we compute a model to assess the factors explaining the variation of popularity. We find that the evolution of the popularity, both in terms of audience and authority, is not explained by the same factors depending on the initial popularity.