Are rating agencies' assignments opaque? Evidence from international banks

  • Authors:
  • Tony Bellotti;Roman Matousek;Chris Stewart

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Edinburgh Business School, William Robertson Building, 50 George Square, Edinburgh EH8 9JY, UK;Centre for International Capital Markets, London Metropolitan Business School, London Metropolitan University, 84 Moorgate, London EC2M 6SQ, UK;Centre for International Capital Markets, London Metropolitan Business School, London Metropolitan University, 84 Moorgate, London EC2M 6SQ, UK

  • Venue:
  • Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

We compare the ability of ordered choice models and support vector machines to model and predict international bank ratings. Although support vector machines can identify significant determinants we argue that ordered choice models are more reliable for this. Our findings suggest that ratings reflect a bank's financial position, the timing of rating assignment and a bank's country of origin. Accounting for country effects substantially improves predictive performance. We find that support vector machines can produce considerably better predictions of international bank ratings than ordered choice models due to the formers ability to estimate a large number of country dummies unrestrictedly.