A computational intelligence based framework for one-subsequence-ahead forecasting of nonstationary time series

  • Authors:
  • Vasile Georgescu

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Mathematical Economics, University of Craiova, Craiova, Romania

  • Venue:
  • MDAI'10 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Modeling decisions for artificial intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2010

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

This paper proposes a mix of noise filtering, fuzzy clustering, neural mapping and predictive techniques for one-subsequence-ahead forecasting of nonstationary time series. Optionally, we may start with de-noising the time series by wavelet decomposition. A non-overlapping subsequence time series clustering procedure with a sliding window is next addressed, by using a lower-bound of the Dynamic Time Warping distance as a dissimilarity measure, when applying the Fuzzy C-Means algorithm. Afterwards, the subsequence time series transition function is learned by neural mapping, consisting of deriving, for each subsequence time series, the degrees to which it belongs to the c cluster prototypes, when the pċc membership degrees of the previous p subsequences are presented as inputs to the neural network. Finally, this transition function is applied to forecasting one-subsequence-ahead time series, as a weighted mean of the c cluster prototypes to which it belongs, and the S&P 500 data are used for testing.