A betting interpretation for probabilities and Dempster--Shafer degrees of belief

Authors:
Glenn Shafer
Affiliations:
Rutgers Business School, Newark and New Brunswick, 180 University Avenue, Newark, NJ 07102, USA and Department of Computer Science, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, UK
Venue:
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Year:
2011

Citing 3
Cited 3

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Abstract

There are at least two ways to interpret numerical degrees of belief in terms of betting: 1.You can offer to bet at the odds defined by the degrees of belief. 2.You can make the judgement that a strategy for taking advantage of such betting offers will not multiply the capital it risks by a large factor. Both interpretations can be applied to ordinary additive probabilities and used to justify updating by conditioning. Only the second can be applied to Dempster-Shafer degrees of belief and used to justify Dempster's rule of combination.