A methodology to generate a belief rule base for customer perception risk analysis in new product development

Authors:
Dawei Tang;Jian-Bo Yang;Kwai-Sang Chin;Zoie S. Y. Wong;Xinbao Liu
Affiliations:
Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China and Manchester Business School, University of Mancheste ...;Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, UK and School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, China;Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, China
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2011

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Abstract

New product development (NPD) is crucial for a company's success in a competitive market. Meanwhile, NPD is a process associated with great complexity and high risk. To ensure its smooth operation, risks involved in an NPD process need to be analyzed in a proper way. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to generate a belief rule base (BRB), which is the basis of the Belief Rule-Base Inference Methodology using the Evidential Reasoning (RIMER). Due to its capability in dealing with complex reasoning problems under uncertainty, RIMER is then applied to assess customer perception risk (CPR) in an NPD process. To test and validate the method proposed in this paper, a case study of an ''Interactive Doll'' is conducted at the end of the paper.