Toward probabilistic analysis of guidelines

  • Authors:
  • Arjen Hommersom

  • Affiliations:
  • Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Computing and Information Sciences, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

  • Venue:
  • KR4HC'10 Proceedings of the ECAI 2010 conference on Knowledge representation for health-care
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

In the formal analysis of health-care, there is little work that combines probabilistic and temporal reasoning. On the one hand, there are those that aim to support the clinical thinking process, which is characterised by trade-off decision making taking into account uncertainty and preferences, i.e., the process has a probabilistic and decision-theoretic flavour. On the other hand, the management of care, e.g., guidelines and planning of tasks, is typically modelled symbolically using temporal, non-probabilistic, methods. This paper proposes a new framework for combining temporal reasoning with probabilistic decision making. The framework is instantiated with a guideline modelling language combined with probabilistic pharmokinetics and applied to the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2.