Finding temporal associative rules in financial time-series: a case of study in Madrid stock exchange (IGBM)

  • Authors:
  • Conti Dante;J Martinez De Pison Francisco;Pernia Alpha

  • Affiliations:
  • Departamento de Investigacion de Operaciones de la Escuela de Ingenieria de Sistemas, Universidad de Los Andes, Facultad de Ingenieria, Venezuela;EDMANS Group, Departamento de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad de La Rioja, La Rioja, Spain;EDMANS Group, Departamento de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad de La Rioja, La Rioja, Spain

  • Venue:
  • CIMMACS '10 Proceedings of the 9th WSEAS international conference on computational intelligence, man-machine systems and cybernetics
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

This research centres on an experience which deals with multiple financial time-series. Financial data are treated by temporal mining analysis, specifically temporal association rules. These data are captured from records of the Madrid Stock Exchange (IGBM). The main goal focuses on seeking useful knowledge to explain relationships and trends amongst assets/stock prices which determine IGBM stock index. An exploratory methodology based on Knowledge Discovery (KDD) is used to cover all stages of the mining analysis: data extraction, filtering, basic forms representation, finding of important and characteristic episodes/events, construction of temporal-transactional databases and finally, searching and presentation of temporal association rules with their technical and financial conclusions. This methodology is supported on software tools by using developed libraries and graphics in R-free statistical language platform. The basic idea of mining temporal rules consists in searching and representing the repeated relationships between events obtained from these financial time-series by adding time-parameter constraints: time window (sliding window) and time lags. This process involves finding significant events into multivariate time series considering time restrictions, and then a search is made for sequences of episodes or items that are repeated amongst financial data in order to carry out a rules extraction stage. Database is connected to 20 assets (stock price time-series, in Euros) of IGBM and IGBM (index evolution, expressed in points) which conform a set of 21 financial time-series from 1993 to 2008.