Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method
Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method
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The present study undertakes reliability and capacity credit analysis of wind farms generation. The capacity credit of wind power generation (WPG) express how much conventional power can be replaced by wind power. Reliability analyses of power systems are conventionally done by using either the analytical method based on the contingency enumeration approach or Monte Carlo simulation. In this approach, the software tool Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is applied to simulate the behavior of the corresponding system. The basic concepts and their application in composite power system reliability evaluation are illustrated by application to a small practical test system designated as the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). An auto regressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is used to simulate hourly wind speeds and the out put of the wind farm.