Adaptive neuro-fuzzy modeling for crop yield prediction

  • Authors:
  • Kefaya Qaddoum;Evor Hines;Daciana Illiescu

  • Affiliations:
  • School of Engineering, The University of Warwick, United Kingdom;School of Engineering, The University of Warwick, United Kingdom;School of Engineering, The University of Warwick, United Kingdom

  • Venue:
  • AIKED'11 Proceedings of the 10th WSEAS international conference on Artificial intelligence, knowledge engineering and data bases
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamics of neural networks in forecasting crop (tomato) yield using environmental variables; here we aim at giving accurate yield amount. We use the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The input to ANFIS is several parameters derived from the crop growth model (temperature, Co2, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), yield, and radiation). ANFIS has only one output node, the yield. One of the difficult issues in predicting yield is that remote sensing data do not go long back in time. Therefore any predicting effort is forced to use a very restricted number of past years in order to construct a model to forecast future values. The system is trained by leaving one year out and using all the other data. We then evaluate the deviation of our estimate compared to the yield of the year that is left out. The procedure is applied to all the years and the average forecasting accuracy is given.