Optimization-based influencing of village social networks in a counterinsurgency

  • Authors:
  • Benjamin W. K. Hung;Stephan E. Kolitz;Asuman Ozdaglar

  • Affiliations:
  • United States Military Academy, Department of Mathematical Sciences, West Point, New York;Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, Massachusetts;Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, Cambridge, Massachusetts

  • Venue:
  • SBP'11 Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Social computing, behavioral-cultural modeling and prediction
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

This paper considers the nonlethal targeting assignment problem in the counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, the problem of deciding on the people whom US forces should engage through outreach, negotiations, meetings, and other interactions in order to ultimately win the support of the population in their area of operations. We propose two models: 1) the Afghan COIN social influence model, to represent how attitudes of local leaders are affected by repeated interactions with other local leaders, insurgents, and counterinsurgents, and 2) the nonlethal targeting model, a nonlinear programming (NLP) optimization formulation that identifies a strategy for assigning k US agents to produce the greatest arithmetic mean of the expected long-term attitude of the population. We demonstrate in an experiment the merits of the optimization model in nonlethal targeting, which performs significantly better than both doctrine-based and random methods of assignment in a large network.