Using artificial neural network models in stock market index prediction

Authors:
Erkam Guresen;Gulgun Kayakutlu;Tugrul U. Daim
Affiliations:
Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey;Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey;Portland State University, Portland OR, USA
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2011

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Abstract

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions. The models analysed are multi-layer perceptron (MLP), dynamic artificial neural network (DAN2) and the hybrid neural networks which use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) to extract new input variables. The comparison for each model is done in two view points: Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviate (MAD) using real exchange daily rate values of NASDAQ Stock Exchange index.