Performance of Skart: A Skewness-and Autoregression-Adjusted Batch Means Procedure for Simulation Analysis

  • Authors:
  • Ali Tafazzoli;James R. Wilson;Emily K. Lada;Natalie M. Steiger

  • Affiliations:
  • Metron Aviation, Inc., Dulles, Virginia 20166;Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695;SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina 27513;Maine Business School, University of Maine, Orono, Maine 04469

  • Venue:
  • INFORMS Journal on Computing
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

An analysis is given for an extensive experimental performance evaluation of Skart, an automated sequential batch means procedure for constructing an asymptotically valid confidence interval (CI) on the steady-state mean of a simulation output process. Skart is designed to deliver a CI satisfying user-specified requirements on absolute or relative precision as well as coverage probability. Skart exploits separate adjustments to the half-length of the classical batch means CI so as to account for the effects on the distribution of the underlying Student's t-statistic that arise from skewness (nonnormality) and autocorrelation of the batch means. Skart also delivers a point estimator for the steady-state mean that is approximately free of initialization bias. In an experimental performance evaluation involving a wide range of test processes, Skart compared favorably with other steady-state simulation analysis methods---namely, its predecessors ASAP3, WASSP, and SBatch, as well as ABATCH, LBATCH, the Heidelberger--Welch procedure, and the Law--Carson procedure. Specifically, Skart exhibited competitive sampling efficiency and closer conformance to the given CI coverage probabilities than the other procedures, especially in the most difficult test processes.