N-Skart: a nonsequential skewness- and autoregression-adjusted batch-means procedure for simulation analysis

  • Authors:
  • Ali Tafazzoli;James R. Wilson

  • Affiliations:
  • Metron Aviation, Inc., Dulles, VA;North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

  • Venue:
  • Winter Simulation Conference
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

We discuss N-Skart, a nonsequential procedure designed to deliver a confidence interval (CI) for the steady-state mean of a simulation output process when the user supplies a single simulation-generated time series of arbitrary size and specifies the required coverage probability for a CI based on that data set. N-Skart is a variant of the method of batch means that exploits separate adjustments to the half-length of the CI so as to account for the effects on the distribution of the underlying Student's t-statistic that arise from skewness (nonnormality) and autocorrelation of the batch means. If the sample size is sufficiently large, then N-Skart delivers not only a CI but also a point estimator for the steady-state mean that is approximately free of initialization bias. In an experimental performance evaluation involving a wide range of test processes and sample sizes, N-Skart exhibited close conformance to the user-specified CI coverage probabilities.