Large scale knowledge-based simulation models: an aproximation to the north-south remittances model

Authors:
Carlos R. García-Alonso;Esther Arenas-Arroyo;Gabriel M. Pérez-Alcalá
Affiliations:
Cordoba, SPAIN;Cordoba, SPAIN;Córdoba, SPAIN
Venue:
Winter Simulation Conference
Year:
2009

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Abstract

This paper studies the evolution throughout the time span of those covariates that remittances depend on. Not only economical variables but also demographic, social and political ones have been taken into account in a Monte-Carlo-based simulation model. Expert knowledge was incorporated modeling fuzzy dependence relationships (DR) between covariates based on standard macroeconomic models. An improved procedure to make fuzzy rules explicit and to evaluate them automatically was designed and tested in a multilevel fuzzy inference engine. Primary covariates (inputs in a dependence relationship) were defined by standard statistical distributions (uniform). The multilevel fuzzy inference engine evaluated DR outputs, following a hierarchical structure once the input values were known. Using this methodology, a North-South remittances model was designed and evaluated. Results showed that intermediate DR outputs matched the expert-based expectations reasonably as did the remittances.