Predicting adverse events: detecting myocardial damage in intensive care unit (ICU) patients

  • Authors:
  • Derek Sleeman;Laura Moss;Malcolm Sim;John Kinsella

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom;University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom;University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom;University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the sixth international conference on Knowledge capture
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

Myocardial damage is known to occur relatively frequently, and although it is not often fatal it results in the patient staying in the ICU for significantly longer. Thus it is important for clinicians to detect these events. Confirmation of myocardial damage is by a biomarker (troponin), but these tests are only done at fixed time-points. Consequently it is desirable for doctors, and support systems, to detect myocardial damage from the standard parameters collected for ICU patients. We have undertaken a study with several ICU consultants to determine the conditions which generally precede a myocardial-damaging event. In fact, these knowledge acquisition sessions produced a complex model which we have realized as 2 interacting modules. Subsequently, we compared this model's predictions against the original datasets; the model when run against the test dataset resulted in a relatively high True Positive (TP) rate (75.8%). The implications of these analyses are discussed, as are a number of planned follow-up studies