A method for explaining and predicting trends: an application to the Dutch justice system

Authors:
Susan W. van den Braak;Anne Sonnenschein;Sunil Choenni;Paul R. Smit
Affiliations:
Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Ministry of Security and Justice, the Netherlands;Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Ministry of Security and Justice, the Netherlands;Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Ministry of Security and Justice, the Netherlands;Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Ministry of Security and Justice, the Netherlands
Venue:
Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law
Year:
2011

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Abstract

A method, named Trendwatch, has been developed for explaining and predicting trends in which a structural break has occurred. Using this method it is possible to explain such a break in terms of causal networks of factors. The thus created explanation is validated using evidential arguments based on expert opinions. Moreover, this explanation is used to predict the future course of the trend after the break. To do so, experts are asked to predict the development of the factors at the beginning of the explanation.