Learning time-based presence probabilities

  • Authors:
  • John Krumm;A. J. Bernheim Brush

  • Affiliations:
  • Microsoft Research, Redmond, WA;Microsoft Research, Redmond, WA

  • Venue:
  • Pervasive'11 Proceedings of the 9th international conference on Pervasive computing
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

Many potential pervasive computing applications could use predictions of when a person will be at a certain place. Using a survey and GPS data from 34 participants in 11 households, we develop and test algorithms for predicting when a person will be at home or away. We show that our participants' self-reported home/away schedules are not very accurate, and we introduce a probabilistic home/away schedule computed from observed GPS data. The computation includes smoothing and a soft schedule template. We show how the probabilistic schedule outperforms both the self-reported schedule and an algorithm based on driving time. We also show how to combine our algorithm with the best part of the drive time algorithm for a slight boost in performance.