The nature of statistical learning theory
The nature of statistical learning theory
Machine Learning
Statistical Models in S
Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control
Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control
Data Mining
ICDM '09 Proceedings of the 9th Industrial Conference on Advances in Data Mining. Applications and Theoretical Aspects
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In this paper, various enhanced sales forecast methodologies and models for the automobile market are presented. The methods used deliver highly accurate predictions while maintaining the ability to explain the underlying model at the same time. The representation of the economic training data is discussed, as well as its effects on the newly registered automobiles to be predicted. The methodology mainly consists of time series analysis and classical Data Mining algorithms, whereas the data is composed of absolute and/or relative market-specific exogenous parameters on a yearly, quarterly, or monthly base. It can be concluded that the monthly forecasts were especially improved by this enhanced methodology using absolute, normalized exogenous parameters. Decision Trees are considered as the most suitable method in this case, being both accurate and explicable. The German and the US-American automobile market are presented for the evaluation of the forecast models.